Xbox 'Dropped the Ball' as Analysts Say Call of Duty Is Underperforming in the Worst Possible Year

Industry analysts are sounding the alarm for Xbox as Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 appears to be falling short of expectations in a year packed with fierce competition. Despite Call of Duty’s long-standing dominance in the FPS genre, early indicators suggest that Black Ops 7 isn’t keeping pace with the franchise’s usual performance. Analysts argue the timing couldn’t be worse, with 2025 delivering some of the strongest rival shooters in over a decade.

Black Ops 7 Launches Strong but Stumbles in Player Engagement

Black Ops 7 officially launched on November 14 across last-gen and current-gen consoles as well as PC, and its Season 1 update arrived on December 4, fully integrating the game with Warzone. However, Activision has yet to share any official sales or engagement figures.

On Steam, the game peaked at around 100,000 concurrent players, which is noticeably lower than past entries. Yet Black Ops 7 still managed to top the PlayStation Store download charts for November 2025, outperforming major competitors like ARC Raiders and Battlefield 6. Even so, analysts say this doesn’t tell the full story.

Why Analysts Say 2025 Was the Worst Year for a Call of Duty Misstep

Speaking with Eurogamer, industry analysts Chris Dring (The Game Business) and Rhys Elliot (Alinea Analytics) pointed to several compounding issues.

Dring described 2025 as a “hard year” for the franchise, with daily active users dipping, especially in the Call of Duty HQ app. Elliot expanded on this, saying the downturn stems from community fatigue, questionable decisions from Activision and Microsoft, and unprecedented competition.

The Competition Has Never Been Tougher

2025 delivered a gauntlet of high-profile shooters:

• Battlefield 6 shocked the industry with a massive comeback, peaking at 747,000 concurrent Steam players and becoming the year's best-selling game.

• ARC Raiders, released shortly after, dominated the extraction-shooter scene and earned a Best Multiplayer Game nomination at The Game Awards.

• Fortnite continued to siphon attention with major crossovers, including its hit Simpsons event.

Elliot says these titles captured attention at a moment when players were already growing tired of the Call of Duty formula.

Stumbles in Creative Direction Hurt Black Ops 7

Call of Duty fans have also been vocal about the game’s creative direction. After the massive success of Black Ops 6 in 2024, the shift to Fortnite-style cosmetics throughout 2025 sparked heavy criticism. While Black Ops 7 removed the Carry Forward system to maintain a more grounded tone, some damage to community sentiment had already been done.

Game Pass May Be Taking a Toll on Sales

Elliot also argues that Microsoft’s decision to add Black Ops 7 to Xbox Game Pass on day one may have significantly reduced traditional sales on Xbox and PC. Earlier reports suggested that Black Ops 6 may have lost $300 million in potential revenue due to its inclusion on Game Pass, and analysts believe Black Ops 7 is experiencing a similar impact.

According to Elliot, their data has “signaled time and time again that Game Pass cannibalises game revenues — and Call of Duty is no different.”

A Rare Weak Spot for Gaming’s Biggest Franchise

While Black Ops 7 still has time to regain momentum through updates, seasonal content, and Warzone integration, analysts agree: 2025 delivered the worst possible lineup of competitors for a misstep from gaming's biggest FPS brand. Xbox now finds itself navigating an underperforming Call of Duty at a moment when rivals are stronger than ever — and in a year when the company needed a win the most.